Welcome to 1789...

I think the Assembly would have been nipped in the bud, the left marginalised out of existence and a settlement nice for maybe the upper echelons of the middle classes arrived at, but that'd be it. Paris gives it a sort of fortified protection from the court and without that, I think the court/nobility would have won, by force of arms if need be. Catch 22 - then Paris becomes what (depending on your political point of view!) could be seen as the Convention's jailer (no, that's not the right term - arm twister, maybe, bouncer), not just for the Girondins but also the Montagnards on 5th September etc. The very thing they need to survive is the thing that threatens it...I think a lot of things in the Revolution are like that, though - viz, Robespierre's temperament: without that extraordinary, inflexible drive ("above all, tenacious") the project would never have got so far, but sadly I think politicians need flexibility, compromise, etc. to survive in the long term (Vetinari, the benign tyrant in the Discworld books, was described by Terry Pratchet as a cross between Robespierre and Machiavelli - that sort of thing's what you need!) I also think, though, the bourgeois Convention members don't really comprehend the fears of the working classes over various issues until they have snowballed (I really need to get a good book on the Enrages and co.!)